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ROME?? Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi faces a confidence vote in parliament Friday that is seen as the most serious threat to his political survival since the billionaire media baron was swept into power nearly two decades ago.

With an electorate weary of the scandals engulfing the premier and worried about Italy’s economy, Berlusconi is facing repeated calls for his resignation from his political rivals, labor unions and parts of the business community that once considered him their savior.

But the latest threat to his 3 1/2-year-old government has come from within his own fractious coalition: Earlier this week, parliament’s lower house failed to approve an article of the budget review by a single vote. Berlusconi’s own financial minister missed the balloting by 30 seconds.

The failure of the measure prompted opposition lawmakers to demand Berlusconi’s immediate resignation and the country’s ceremonial president to urge the premier to prove his government still retained a parliamentary majority. The confidence vote will test that, and if the vote fails the 75-year Berlusconi will have to resign.

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Despite the scandals, economic stagnation and intense pressure from financial markets plaguing him and his administration, he is seen surviving for now ? just as he has survived many such votes, because squabbling factions in his coalition are still not ready to replace him.

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“If a group of deputies inside his People of Freedom party had a precise strategy then probably Berlusconi’s days would be numbered, but we are not there yet,” political commentator Sergio Romano told Reuters.

Staying power
Berlusconi has steadfastly hung onto power even as his leadership has been weakened by personal sex scandals that have even brought thinly veiled criticism from Pope Benedict XVI. In addition, he’s facing four criminal trials and Italy’s increasingly precarious financial position. Three ratings agencies have downgraded Italy’s public debt, citing Italy’s political gridlock as a key reason.

But Berlusconi has shown amazing staying power in the face of prostitution scandals, howling gaffes and a very public separation from his wife. He has always maintained his innocence and blamed overzealous, left-leaning prosecutors bent on ousting him from power.

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Analysts say even if the 75-year-old premier wins, it will be a matter of months only before a new crisis hits, and the country is likely to hold elections next spring, a year early.

Berlusconi told parliament on Thursday the fall of his government would be “a victory for those who want to see (Italy) fall into decline, catastrophe and the kind of speculation we have seen for months in Europe and Italy.”

Many analysts see the opposite as true, and see Berlusconi’s ineffectiveness in the face of crisis bringing either snap elections or an unelected government of technical experts ?preferable to the current malaise.

Nicholas Spiro, head of debt consultancy firm Spiro Sovereign Strategy, said a “Berlusconi premium” has been built into Italy’s borrowing costs.

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His political demise “could trigger a favorable re-assessment of Italy in the minds of international investors, particularly if a non-partisan technocratic cabinet took office,” Spiro said.

Party united?
A number of center-right deputies were absent from Tuesday’s vote, infuriating Berlusconi and feeding suspicions that some stayed away to raise their bargaining power in the coalition.

On Thursday, Berlusconi described the episode as an “accident” and insisted the center-right bloc was united.

He is facing internal challenges from a number of ministers, most notably form Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti, who are unhappy with his leadership and the damage his personal and legal woes have done to Italy’s reputation.

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President Giorgio Napolitano entered the fray this week, expressing deep concern about the viability of government and demanding a “credible response” to Italy’s acute problems.

A Reuters survey of about 20 analysts said on Thursday that Italy is already in recession, will barely muster any growth in 2012 and will miss the government’s fiscal deficit targets.

Its sovereign debt has been downgraded in the last month by Standard & Poors, Moody’s and Fitch, and since early August it has relied on the European Central Bank to buy its bonds to prevent yields rising to unsustainable levels.

Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44899963/ns/world_news-europe/

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